All the tosser young Liberals will say no.

Every state is currently run by Labor and Rudd is making a definate impact

Can Johnny hang on or will the workers come back into power?

Australia has Labor governments in every state and they all suck. The libs can't get elected in any state because they're worse. Now we've got big Kev and he's excited. Apparently his sh1t don't stink. Howard is tired.

Here's my prediction...

Labor will win the federal election comfortably but will not get a majority in the senate. This will last for 10 years. Like dominos the labor state governments will fall one by one. The voters want a change but will want checks and balances.

It will depend on whether Rudd can build some economic credentials and limit mistakes, and whether Howard can pull a rabbit out of the hat on climate change and/or find enough scare issues around election time. At the moment though it's like water off a duck's back to Rudd.

Howard is definitely looking like he's hung on for one election too many. His stance on climate change, which is becoming a real issue, is definitely seen as fiddling while Rome burns.

Work Choices is also a loser for Howard. It offends people's sensibilities about fairness even if it has economic advantages. Howard needs to reconvince the electorate he has not gone back to being "mean, tricky and out of touch".

Howard also doesn't benefit from his "nasty" deputies. Costello, Abbott and Ruddock have extreme negatives as alternative leaders. Turnbull is probably a better, nicer and more articulate option. Gillard is a bigger plus as a deputy for Rudd than all these men are for Howard.

I have a few lefty friends who vote Labor. They seem to think that Rudd is just a plodder. They have also ALL raised the point about Rudds missus being a squillionaire (she is worth more than $170million) and has a big mouth which never stops flapping. They are not convinced Rudd is the right man to topple Howard.

Rememebr that politics aint about policies - its the personal issues that sway voters. Rudds wife's wealth may be a factor that some resent in a Labour candidate.

Jack.

I have been a Federal Liberal voter for a while now. Unions scare me. They have well and truly outlived their usefulness for many Australians.

However, I like Rudd's tougher stance on the unions. I also like that he seems decisive. Backflipping on Uranium and taking on the Greens IMO is a strong indication of his character. I tink some of his IR changes will be too dramatic, but at least we finally have an alternative that has vastly different ideas on things

Howard unfortunately will be losing voters dueto his perceived close aliance with Bush. David Hicks won't help either, even though he is a convicted terrorist. Aussies just love the underdog

QUOTE: Jack @ Apr 30 2007, 10:37 AM

I have a few lefty friends who vote Labor. They seem to think that Rudd is just a plodder. They have also ALL raised the point about Rudds missus being a squillionaire (she is worth more than $170million) and has a big mouth which never stops flapping. They are not convinced Rudd is the right man to topple Howard.

Rememebr that politics aint about policies - its the personal issues that sway voters. Rudds wife's wealth may be a factor that some resent in a Labour candidate.

Jack.

Jack

I'm not quite sure Rudds supposeduly $$ will impact the vote. Howard is millionaire and he gets through alright (not to mention Mr Turnbell), I would also think that the bald headed rocker would have a few $$ tucked away. To be honest, if it is true, it's the frst I have heard of it...

The Desiccated coconut hasn't much left, he looks and sounds tired and desperate. Rudd looks and sounds young and enthusiastic

I agree with Dingo's assessment, Federal Labour win, with eventual repalcement of state gov'ts with the Libs, particularly in WA and NSW

QUOTE: Jack @ Apr 30 2007, 10:37 AM

I have a few lefty friends who vote Labor. They seem to think that Rudd is just a plodder. They have also ALL raised the point about Rudds missus being a squillionaire (she is worth more than $170 million) and has a big mouth which never stops flapping. They are not convinced Rudd is the right man to topple Howard.

And the alternative is?

My lefty friends think Rudd is a bright new light. The conservative ones who think Rudd is a plodder might end up embarrassed and wondering why they didn't take him more seriously.

I'm not so sure Therese Rein is a negative for Rudd amongst voters at large (compared to Labor Party stalwarts). She will attract voters who are interested in some sort of "new" Labor rather than the union-dominated one. She's also has a very philanthropic side. The comparisons with Cherie Blair are obvious.

PS. The $170 million is her world-wide company turnover, not its profit or her actual nett worth. True to say she's loaded though.

Gillard will attract the bogan / Pauline Hanson voter

[insert reference to Southern members here]

QUOTE: mrdenn1s @ Apr 30 2007, 02:51 PM

Gillard will attract the bogan / Pauline Hanson voter

But the only thing Gillard has in common with Hanson is a. being female and b. speaking with a whiney Aussie voice. I suppose that might attract a few voters-in-common.

Otherwise they are worlds apart. Gillard is a bright lawyer with a good understanding of politics, industrial relations and economics; Hanson could only just tell how much change to give from a flake and chips.

QUOTE: publish @ Apr 30 2007, 04:34 PM

But the only thing Gillard has in common with Hanson is a. being female and b. speaking with a whiney Aussie voice. I suppose that might attract a few voters-in-common.

Otherwise they are worlds apart. Gillard is a bright lawyer with a good understanding of politics, industrial relations and economics; Hanson could only just tell how much change to give from a flake and chips.

c. bad hair

So does anyone think either candidate or party is worthy of the office to which they aspire?

QUOTE: publish @ Apr 30 2007, 02:43 PM

And the alternative is?

My lefty friends think Rudd is a bright new light. The conservative ones who think Rudd is a plodder might end up embarrassed and wondering why they didn't take him more seriously.

I'm not so sure Therese Rein is a negative for Rudd amongst voters at large (compared to Labor Party stalwarts). She will attract voters who are interested in some sort of "new" Labor rather than the union-dominated one. She's also has a very philanthropic side. The comparisons with Cherie Blair are obvious.

PS. The $170 million is her world-wide company turnover, not its profit or her actual nett worth. True to say she's loaded though.

Publish,

I don't doubt what you say at all. It just shows that the facts can still get in the way of a good story. I can remember many of the same lefties I know all pushing hard on Latham as well when he was the "bright new light"

I think Johnny will scrape home and then hand over to Costello who will get smashed at the next election.

Bring back the bomber ... :-)

QUOTE: Jack @ Apr 30 2007, 07:10 PM

I think Johnny will scrape home and then hand over to Costello who will get smashed at the next election.

I think, provided he can keep his economic wits about him, that Rudd will get up and Johnny will blight a good career by getting kicked out of office rather than retiring at the right time.

Howard still believes he really is the MoS ... all those morning walks make him think he is still 50. Of course if he successfully prays for enough rainfall to make a flood and the climate change fears disappear, the result might well be different.

Howard still

believes

he really is the MoS ... all those morning walks make him

think

...

Given that you can read the Prime Minister's mind, do you have a manager? You could make a fortune with psychic skills like that

I'm waiting for Labor to blame the government for the drought - it surely can't be far away?

Are you sure Big Kev or baldy haven't had a go yet Moe?

Labor must be praying for a dry winter, so the average voter doesn't forget!

Terry McCrann makes interesting reading today.

QUOTE: andigold @ May 1 2007, 11:51 AM

Terry McCrann makes interesting reading today.

Harsh...

I don't think IR laws changing will have the impact that the war mongers argue.

Workers rights will always be there in some form.

QUOTE: mrdenn1s @ May 1 2007, 11:57 AM

Harsh...

I don't think IR laws changing will have the impact that the war mongers argue.

Workers rights will always be there in some form.

The problem with Federal Labour is that it is more a loose confederation of warring tribes than it is a cohesive team with a shared ideological vision. The issue for anybody trying to put together an electable team (close to centre) is that their policies are compromised by the factions and their opposing (or at least differing) views.

Tough job, I hope Rudd is up to it as strong opposition breeds strong governments.

Of course Rudd's job is often made harder by the candidates chosen to run

Tough job, I hope Rudd is up to it as strong opposition breeds strong governments.

Quite right! It's a much better noise than the usual opposition bleating.

Harsh...

One of McCrann's more sensible pieces. Crikey.com's cartoon today was spot on. Margaret whispers to Gough "It's time". Gough answers "I've already been"

His point about Gillard being slow witted was spot on. For all the world that deadpan face reminds me of Brian Clark except she never says anything funny.

Why get rid of someone who has kept inflation and unemployment at all time lows? Not to mention a surplus for like the last 10 years. The old saying, if it aint broke dont fix it.

QUOTE: andigold @ May 1 2007, 01:25 PM

Of course Rudd's job is often made harder by the candidates chosen to run

She was on the TV last night doing the street walk for the cameras. She is either a complete airhead, cannot think on her feet or just plain old has no idea how to deal with journo questions.

The Libs have potential for some real campaign mileage out of her.

QUOTE: Reactor @ May 1 2007, 01:58 PM

Why get rid of someone who has kept inflation and unemployment at all time lows? Not to mention a surplus for like the last 10 years. The old saying, if it aint broke dont fix it.

Because they are mean-spirited, arrogant, corrupt tossers with an unhealthy disdain for proper democratic government who have presided over a false economic success story built on greed and a spiralling, unsustainable level of debt that has done nothing to build infrastructure and the skills needed for a prosperous future whilst ignoring the economic and social consequences of climate change.

Unemployment is only at an all time low if you believe the rubbery figures this government put out.